The Special Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes is a collection of descriptive and critical economic analyses of South African Reserve Bank with recommendations written for internal SARB discussion. They are written by staff members or fellows of the Economic Research Department and, on occasion, by consultants under the auspices of the SARB. They are released publicly on an occasional basis. This series features internal research on how oil price shocks generate second-round effects, with a specific focus on the 2026 oil price shock.

^{28 October}

Click on any of the headings below to read the individual Economic Notes.

1. Oil price shocks and inflation: stylised facts from historical oil shocks
2. Fuel price pass-through in South Africa following the war in the Middle East
3. Quantifying the pass-through of a fuel price shock to inflation expectations and inflation in an attentive environment
4. Oil price shocks and inflation risks: evidence from South African market pricing
5. The first- and second-round effects of supply shocks
6. Waiting for wages: oil price shocks, wage expectations and wage growth in South Africa

Alternatively, download the combined publication below.