The outbreak of war in the Middle East in early 2026 triggered one of the largest oil price shocks in recent decades, causing Brent crude prices, refinery margins and South Africa’s fuel prices to rise even more steeply than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

_{by Keletso Morwane and Rudi Steinbach}

• The outbreak of war in the Middle East in early 2026 triggered one of the largest oil price shocks in recent decades, causing Brent crude prices, refinery margins and South Africa’s fuel prices to rise even more steeply than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Using 389 eight-digit inflation components, this note assesses how inflation pressures have dispersed across the consumer price basket during the first six months following the shock and compares the results with the fuel price shock of 2022.
• We find that the 2026 event has so far generated a broad-based and intense inflation response, although some of the broadening, largely confined to a few services components, was already underway before the shock. More favourable conditions in key sectors such as food helped contain the overall pass-through of the shock, resulting in a less widespread and less dispersed inflation response than in 2022.
• Nevertheless, the intensity of the inflation pickup and the extent to which inflation has exceeded the pace consistent with the target are often comparable across the two episodes.