The pandemic has tested monetary and fiscal policy frameworks. Central banks globally have been able to relax monetary and financial policies to buffer the shock, and in many cases used unconventional policies and new instruments. As the global recovery progresses, inflation emerges and the pandemic presents setbacks to growth, central banks will be challenged to conduct a steady withdrawal of monetary accommodation. In some economies, this process is underway. Public debt levels have risen sharply as governments ramped up spending to offset economic costs of the pandemic and to provide the needed health care support. The pandemic and the recovery phase also presents challenges to financial stability, in terms of weakened financial systems and the potential for the resumption of high-risk financial cycles. The SARB and BIS are jointly hosting a Centenary Research Conference to explore these issues, from
20 to 22 October 2021.
The final session of the BIS-SARB Centenary Conference was a spirited discussion about policy after the COVID-19 pandemic. The session was chaired by Francine Lacqua, accompanied by panellists Lesetja Kganyago, Agustín Carstens and Jerome Powell. The inflation and growth outlook started the conversation. The next topic was centred around the expected normalisation and what could be expected from monetary policy. The outlook for capital flows and the effects of technology trends to emerging markets were also highlighted. The panellists closed the session with the risks on the horizon and the policy design required. Click here for the recording.
The financial system’s resilience to the recovery was the topic for the third day of the jointly hosted centenary conference by the South African Reserve Bank and Bank for International Settlements. Deputy Governor Fundi Tshazibana chaired the session, with lead speaker Hyun Shin and discussants Laura Alfaro and Lemma Senbet. The session featured Shin’s research about overcoming ‘original sin’ to secure policy space. Overall, the discussion was optimistic, as financial institutions have managed the current COVID-19 crisis having onboarded lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, many emerging countries have avoided large holdings of foreign government debt during this crisis. Click here for the recording.
The South African Reserve Bank and Bank for International Settlements jointly hosted the second day of the centenary conference with a panel discussion about fiscal support to the recovery and longer-term challenges in the wake of COVID-19. Deputy Governor Kuben Naidoo chaired the session, with lead speaker Carmen Reinhart alongside discussants Stan du Plessis and Ugo Panizza. The central theme of the discussion was the near-term challenge for public financing in the changing financial market environment. An engaging debate centred on financial repression, fiscal dominance, central bank independence and other reforms facing countries due to high debt levels, in particular, what emerging countries should anticipate, and how fiscal and monetary policymakers should best prepare for the next economic cycle. Click here for the recording.
Click here for the webcast.
Francine Lacqua is an award-winning, London-based anchor for Bloomberg Television. She co-anchors the daily weekday programme ‘Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition’, where she provides insight on foreign policy, global markets and the top business stories of the day. She also presents ‘Leaders with Lacqua’, a special series where she sits down with top CEOs, entrepreneurs and public figures. Additionally, she anchors ‘ETF IQ Europe’ weekly.
Since joining Bloomberg in 2000, Lacqua has covered the World Economic Forum in Davos, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, Group of Twenty (G20) meetings, the European Union Leaders Summit and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). She also led Bloomberg Television's coverage of the Italian and French elections where she was one of the first international reporters to interview cabinet members.
While at Bloomberg, Lacqua has interviewed high-profile figures such as French President Emmanuel Macron, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, billionaire financier George Soros and former ECB President Mario Draghi. She has also interviewed finance ministers from South Korea, Russia, France, Mexico, Italy and Greece, as well as moderated televised debates from the World Economic Forum in Davos and the European Economic Governance package.
In 2018, Lacqua received the Knight of the Order of the Star of Italy (Cavaliere dell’Ordine della Stella d’Italia). The decoration, honouring Italians living abroad who promote national prestige and cooperation with the nation, was presented by the Italian Ambassador Raffaele Trombetta on behalf of the president of Italy.
In 2013 Lacqua won 'International TV Personality of the Year' at the AIB Media Awards. She was previously nominated in 2009 and 2010. In 2012, she was part of the Bloomberg team that won the OPEC award for 'Public Interest Reporting'. She has an LLB in English law from King’s College in London and earned her undergraduate degree at the Sorbonne. She is fluent in French and Italian.
Lesetja Kganyago was appointed Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) with effect from 9 November 2014.
He had been a Deputy Governor of the SARB since May 2011. In this role, he was responsible for a wide range of areas, including Research, Financial Stability, Bank Supervision, Financial Regulatory Reform (including introducing the Twin Peaks regulatory structure), Financial Surveillance (including taking responsibility for the regulation of cross-border flows), Risk Management and Compliance, and what was then called the SARB College (now the SARB Academy).
Lesetja has more than 20 years of experience in formulating and implementing public policy, having spent this time in both the central bank and National Treasury. He has wide-ranging experience in Macroeconomic Policy, Financial Sector Policy, Public Finance, International Finance, Public Debt Management and Financial Markets. During his tenure as Director-General of National Treasury, he successfully steered several public finance and financial market reforms. He played a leading role in the fundamental reform of the microstructure of domestic bond markets, including reforms to the auction system and the introduction of new financial instruments such as inflation-linked bonds, buy-backs, switches and STRIPS. During his time at National Treasury, a fundamental reform in the management of the national debt portfolio was completed.
Lesetja has led South Africa’s technical team to various Group of Twenty (G20) Ministers of Finance and Central Bank Governors meetings and summits, including the Inaugural Summit in 2008. He has chaired the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Development Committee Deputies and the G20 Working Group on IMF Governance Reform; he was also the vice-chair of the Financial Stability Board’s Standing Committee on Standards Implementation for a period of four years.
Currently, Lesetja chairs the Committee of Central Bank Governors of the Southern African Development Community and is the co-chair of the Financial Stability Board’s Regional Consultative Group for Sub-Saharan Africa. He now chairs the Financial Stability Board’s Standing Committee on Standards Implementation.
He was appointed as the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Chairman, effective 18 January 2018, for a period of three years. The IMFC, comprising Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, is the primary advisory body of the IMF Board of Governors and deliberates on the principal policy issues facing the IMF.
Lesetja holds a Master of Science degree in Development Economics from London University (School of Oriental and African Studies) and a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Accounting and Economics from the University of South Africa.
Bank for International Settlements
Agustín Carstens became General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on 1 December 2017. He was Governor of the Bank of Mexico from 2010 to 2017. Mr Carstens was also a member of the BIS Board from 2011 to 2017, and Chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Council from 2013 until 2017. He also chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) policy advisory committee, from 2015 to 2017.
Mr Carstens began his career at the Bank of Mexico in 1980. From 1999 to 2000 he was Executive Director at the IMF. He later served as Mexico’s Deputy Finance Minister (2000–03) and as Deputy Managing Director at the IMF (2003–06). He was Mexico's Finance Minister from 2006 to 2009.
Mr Carstens has been a member of the Financial Stability Board since 2010 and is a member of the Group of Thirty (G30).
Mr Carstens holds an MA and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago.
Jerome H Powell
United States Federal
Jerome H Powell took office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on 5 February 2018 for a four-year term. Mr Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body. Mr Powell has served as a member of the Board of Governors since taking office on 25 May 2012 to fill an unexpired term. He was reappointed to the Board and sworn in on 16 June 2014 for a term ending on 31 January 2028.
Prior to his appointment to the Board, Mr Powell was a visiting scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, DC, where he focused on federal and state fiscal issues. From 1997 to 2005, Mr Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Mr Powell served as an Assistant Secretary and as Undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H W Bush, with responsibility for policy on financial institutions, the Treasury debt market, and related areas. Prior to joining the Administration, he worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City.
In addition to service on corporate boards, Mr Powell has served on the boards of charitable and educational institutions, including the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University and The Nature Conservancy of Washington, DC, and Maryland.
Mr Powell was born in February 1953 in Washington, DC. He received an AB in Politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. While at Georgetown, he was Editor-in-Chief of the Georgetown Law Journal.
Mr Powell is married with three children.
Claudio Borio was appointed Head of the Monetary and Economic Department (MED) on 18 November 2013. Mr Borio has been at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) since 1987, and has held various positions in the MED, including Deputy Head and Director of Research and Statistics, as well as Head of the Secretariat for the Committee on the Global Financial System and Head of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee (now the Markets Committee). From 1985 to 1987 he was an economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), working in the country studies branch of the Economics and Statistics Department. Prior to that, he was a Lecturer and Research Fellow at Brasenose College, Oxford University. He holds a DPhil and an MPhil in Economics and a BA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the same university. Claudio is the author of numerous publications in the fields of monetary policy, banking and finance, and issues related to financial stability.
Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance
University of Chicago
Booth School of Business
Raghuram Rajan was the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 to 2016, Vice-Chairman of the Board of the Bank for International Settlements from 2015 to 2016 and Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2006.
Dr Rajan’s research interests are in banking, corporate finance and economic development. His most recent book, The third pillar: how markets and the state hold the community behind, was a finalist for the Financial Times−McKinsey prize for best business book in 2019.
Dr Rajan was the President of the American Finance Association (AFA) and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He received the AFA’s inaugural Fischer Black Prize in 2003, Euromoney magazine’s Central Banker of the Year award in 2014, and The Banker magazine's Global Central Banker award in 2016.
A W Phillips Professor of Economics
London School of Economics
Recent honours include the 2021 Yrjo Jahnsson award from the European Economic Association for best economist under the age of 45, the 2016 Bernacer prize for best European economist under the age of 40 working in macroeconomics and finance, and the 2017 Banque de France/Toulouse School of Economics junior prize in monetary economics, finance and bank supervision for a researcher of any nationality based in Europe. Professor Reis is an academic consultant at the Bank of England, the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve System, serves on many boards, and directs the Centre for Macroeconomics in the United Kingdom. His main areas of research are inflation expectations, unconventional monetary policies and the central bank’s balance sheet, disagreement and inattention, business cycle models with inequality, automatic stabilisers, sovereign bond-backed securities, and the role of capital misallocation in the European slump and crisis.
Professor of Economics
London Business School
Lucrezia Reichlin is a non-executive director of AGEAS Insurance Group, sits on the Board of Morgan Stanley International and its German subsidiary, is Chair of the European Corporate Governance Institute and is a Trustee of the IFRS Foundation. Ms Reichlin was elected Foreign Honorary Member of the American Economic Association for 2021. She is also a columnist for the Italian national daily Il Corriere della Sera and a regular contributor of Project Syndicate.
Professor Reichlin received a PhD in Economics from New York University. From 2005 to 2008 she was the Director General of Research at the European Central Bank. From 2009 to 2018 she was a non-executive director of the UniCredit Banking Group, and from 2016 to 2019 she was a non-executive director of Eurobank Ergasias SA. From 2013 to 2016 she was Chair of Bruegel’s Scientific Council (Bruegel is the European think tank that specialises in economics). She is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the European Economic Association. She is on the advisory board of several research and policy institutions around the world.
Professor Reichlin has been an active contributor to the life of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). She was Research Director from 2011 to 2013, first Chairperson of the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, co-founder and scientist in charge of the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, and she is now a trustee.
She has published numerous papers on econometrics and macroeconomics, and is an expert on forecasting, business cycle analysis and monetary policy. She pioneered now-casting in economics by developing econometrics methods capable of reading the real-time data flow through the lenses of a formal econometric model. These methods are now widely used by central banks and private investors around the world.
Deputy Governor and CEO: Prudential Authority
Kuben Naidoo is an activist and a public servant in South Africa committed to the achievement of a socially just world. He has a Bachelor of Science degree and a Postgraduate Diploma in Public Management from the University of the Witwatersrand and an MBA from the University of Birmingham, United Kingdom (UK). He joined the National Treasury at the beginning of 1998. Kuben headed the budget office from 2006 to 2010 and completed a two-year stint at the UK Treasury, working in its budget division. He then headed the Secretariat of South Africa’s National Planning Commission between 2010 and 2013. After serving as an Adviser to the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for two years, he was appointed in April 2015 to serve as Deputy Governor of the SARB where he was responsible for overseeing the establishment of the Prudential Authority. He was appointed as the Chief Executive Officer of the Prudential Authority in April 2018. He is also a member of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee.
Vice President and
Assuming this role on 15 June 2020, Carmen Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department. She is on public service leave from Harvard Kennedy School, where she is the Minos A Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System. Previously, she was Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund and held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns. She also serves in the Advisory Panels of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the International Monetary Fund. Reinhart has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thompson Reuters' The World's Most Influential Scientific Minds. In 2018 she was awarded the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and NABE’s Adam Smith Award, among others. She holds a PhD from Columbia University.
Stan du Plessis
Stan du Plessis is the Chief Operating Officer and former Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at Stellenbosch University. He is a Professor in the Department of Economics where he is a specialist in macroeconomics and monetary policy. He has collaborated with the South African Reserve Bank and National Treasury on macroeconomic policy research. He studied at the universities of Cambridge and Stellenbosch as well as the Wharton Business School and is a former President of the Economic Society of South Africa. Stan has published in the following fields: macroeconomics, monetary economics, fiscal policy, international finance, economic history and inequality as well as history and philosophy. He serves on several corporate boards, including Capitec Bank where he is a non-executive director.
Professor of Economics and Pictet Chair in Finance and Development
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Ugo Panizza is also the Director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Editor-in-Chief of International Development Policy, and Deputy Director of the Centre for Finance and Development. He is a Vice President and Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and Fellow of the Fondazione Einaudi. Before joining the Graduate Institute, he was Chief of the Debt and Finance Analysis Unit at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and a Senior Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank. He has also worked at the World Bank and taught at the American University of Beirut and the University of Torino.
Ms Fundi Tshazibana became the Deputy Governor responsible for markets and international relations on 1 August 2019. She is also a member of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Stability Committee and Prudential Committee. She is also Chair of the Board of the Corporation for Public Deposits, the Markets Practitioners Group and the Financial Markets Liaison Group. Ms Tshazibana concluded her term as Chair of the Deputies of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board of Governors in January 2021.
In her 17 years of experience in public policy analysis and formulation, Ms Tshazibana has worked at the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), the National Treasury and the IMF. Her private sector experience is in market research on fast-moving consumer goods.
At the IMF, she was an Alternate Executive Director on the IMF Executive Board. The Executive Board runs the day-to-day operations of the IMF, and its responsibilities include the review and approval of Article IV reports for 189 member countries. Ms Tshazibana represented South Africa and 22 other countries in sub-Saharan Africa within the Africa Group 1 Constituency Office, where she led the analysis of the external sector and the financial sector as well as the management of capital flows.
Before joining the IMF, Ms Tshazibana was Deputy Director-General responsible for the Economic Policy and Forecasting Division at the National Treasury.
At NERSA, Ms Tshazibana served as a Senior Policy Analyst and worked on policy options for restructuring the electricity industry and developed the policy for negotiated pricing agreements.
Economic Adviser and Head of Research
Bank for International Settlements
As the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Economic Adviser, Mr Shin co-leads the Monetary and Economic Department and is part of the BIS’s senior management as a member of its Executive Committee.
Mr Shin has a background in academia. Before he took up his current position in May 2014, he was the Hughes-Rogers Professor of Economics at Princeton University, having previously held appointments at Oxford University and the London School of Economics. He has been an intellectual leader in the fields of banking, international finance and monetary economics, topics on which he has published widely, both in leading academic and official publications.
One area of recent focus has been in developing the BIS’s research programme on digital innovation and the financial system, including the design of central bank digital currencies and their implications for users, financial intermediaries and the central bank. Mr Shin was part of the BIS management team that developed the BIS Innovation Hub and served as its Interim Head at its launch in 2019.
Mr Shin is a Korean national. In 2010, while on leave from Princeton University, he served as Senior Adviser to the Korean President, taking a leading role in formulating financial stability policy in Korea and developing the agenda for the Group of Twenty (G20) during Korea's presidency.
Mr Shin is the author of numerous publications in the fields of monetary policy, banking and finance as well as issues related to financial stability. Further details are available at: www.bis.org/author/hyun_song_shin.htm.
Warren Alpert Professor of Business Administration
Harvard Business School
Laura Alfaro has been with the Harvard Business School (HBS) since 1999. She is also a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research and Centre for Economic Policy Research’s International Macroeconomics and Finance and International Trade and Investment programmes, as well as a member of the International Finance Corporation’s Economic Advisory Board and the Latin-American Financial Regulatory Committee. She served as Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy in Costa Rica from 2010 to 2012. Professor Alfaro is the author of multiple articles published in leading academic journals and HBS cases related to the field of international economics, in particular international capital flows, foreign direct investment, sovereign debt, global value chains and emerging markets.
William E. Mayer Chair Professor of Finance University of Maryland
Former Executive Director/CEO, AERC (or African Economic Research Consortium),
Lemma W Senbet is the William E Mayer Chair Professor of Finance at the University of Maryland, College Park. While on an extended leave from the University, Professor Senbet served as Executive Director/Chief Executive Officer of African Economic Research Consortium, the largest and oldest economic research and training network in Africa, from 2013 to 2018. Professor Senbet is a founder of the Center for Financial Policy at the Robert H Smith School of Business and served as its Founding Director from 2009 to 2013.
Prior to his arrival at the University of Maryland, Professor Senbet held an endowed chair at the University of Wisconsin − Madison, and taught as a visiting professor at Northwestern University, the University of California – Berkeley and New York University. He spearheaded the transformation of the Maryland/Smith Finance Department and served as Chair of the Finance Department from 1998 to 2006. The Finance Department rapidly became a world-class centre of research in corporate finance and investments. It is now recognised as among the top finance departments in the world. In 2005, an investment educational programme at Maryland was named ‘The Lemma Senbet Fund’ in recognition of Professor Senbet’s signature contributions.
Professor Senbet is internationally recognised for his widely cited contributions to corporate and international finance, which have appeared in top journals such as the Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Business and Review of Finance. He has published on wide-ranging issues, including agency conflicts and financial contracting, financial distress and financial crisis, banking regulation and incentives, corporate governance, and valuation effects of multinational corporate diversification.
Professor Senbet has received numerous honours and recognitions for his impact on the profession. He has been elected twice to the board of directors of the American Finance Association and is a past president of the Western Finance Association. In 2000, Professor Senbet was inducted into the Financial Economists Roundtable, a distinguished group of world-wide financial economists who have made significant contributions to finance and seek to apply their knowledge to current policy debates. In 2005, he was awarded an Honorary Doctorate degree: Doctor of Letters Honoris Causa from Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia’s oldest institution of higher education (and his alma mater). In 2006, Professor Senbet was inducted Fellow of Financial Management Association International for career-long distinguished scholarship and professional service. In 2012, he was awarded the Ethiopian Diaspora (SEED) award for exemplary life-time achievements and community service.
Professor Senbet has been a member of over a dozen editorial boards, including for the Journal of Finance (10 years), Financial Management (20 years) and the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (6 years). From 1998 to 2005 he served as Executive Editor of Financial Management, the official publication of Financial Management Association International, and from 2005 to 2011 and from 2017 to present has been Editor (Finance) for the Journal of International Business Studies, the official publication of the Academy of International Business.
Professor Senbet has performed policy work and consulting for a variety of institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations, African Development Bank, and various governmental and private agencies in the Unites States, Canada and Africa. In 2021, Professor Senbet was appointed to the newly established Council of Independent Economic Advisors by the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Regarding his role in the United States financial industry and Board governance, Professor Senbet was a Director of Fortis Funds and is currently an independent Director for the Hartford Funds.
Welcome to the Biennial Conference of the South African Reserve Bank. The theme for this conference is ‘Managing external vulnerabilities: implications for emerging market economies’. It covers both the price stability and financial stability themes. The main driver behind this theme is the major challenge faced by emerging markets, which is the growing influence of global monetary policy spillovers on national policymaking. Ten years after the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, emerging markets are questioning whether they are better placed to withstand future financial crises or not, and if they are more or less susceptible to capital flow reversals.
The conference will include research papers and a panel discussion. Further, it will host subject experts from the advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies.
The conference presenters include a mix of internationally renowned policymakers, academics and central bankers such as Adam Posen: President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics; James Bullard: President and Chief Executive Officer of the St Louis Fed; Alberto D Naudon: Board Member of the Central Bank of Chile; Luiz Awazu Perieira da Silva: Deputy General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements; Tobias Adrian: Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF; Robert N McCauley: retired from the BIS; John Muellbauer: Professor at the University of Oxford; Janine Aron: Senior Research Fellow at the University of Oxford; Pierre Siklos: Professor at the Department of Business and Economics; Wilfrid Laurier University; Sheila M’Mbijjewe: Deputy Governor of the Banki Kuu Ya Kenya; Kathy Yuan: Professor of Finance at the London School of Economics; Co-Pierre Georg: Financial Stability Chair at the University of Cape Town; and Monique Reid Professor at the University of Stellenbosch.
I trust that the conference will provide a platform for a productive dialogue on critical policy issues relevant to central banking.