In this note, once-off questions in the 2025Q4 Bureau for Economic Research inflation expectations survey are used to assess whether South African firms are aware that the inflation target was lowered to 3%.

^{by Monique Reid, Anis Foresto and Pabalelo Mosoma}

Nearly half of the sample (48%) of surveyed firms correctly identified the new target of 3%.

When asked why they believed that is the target, most of this group referred to the announcement of the target by the Minister of Finance. A large proportion of the remaining respondents (38%) reported that the target is between 3% and 4.5%.

This group relied on a range of macroeconomic conditions to motivate their view of the South African Reserve Bank’s preferred target.

Both groups of respondents have revised their inflation expectations downward significantly throughout 2025. These findings indicate that firms are attentive to news about inflation.

This is encouraging for policymakers as it suggests that risk from inattention creating a drag on the path to 3% is not present in the 2025Q4 data.