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Leaning against the wind with fiscal and monetary policy
Published Date:
2022-09-06
Author:
Shaun de Jager, Chris Loewald, Konstantin Makrelov, Xolani Sibande
Last Modified Date:
2022-09-06, 01:09 PM
Category:
Publications > Working Papers | What's New
Fiscal and monetary policy coordination can effectively address the three goals of price stability, financial stability and fiscal sustainability. We employ a large econometric model with rich South African financial sector detail to study how different macro policy combinations affect the business and financial cycles. Our analysis shows that countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies can stabilise both real and financial cycles without recourse to financial stability policy measures. In an alternative scenario with financial stability measures, smaller changes to fiscal and monetary policy instruments are needed, but borrowing costs are higher and investment is lower. In another scenario, where fiscal policy is procyclical and amplifies the financial and real economy cycles, macroprudential tools are more clearly countercyclical. This implies that there is less need for macroprudential tools where fiscal policy (public spending, taxation and borrowing) internalises its own impact on financial stability.