Good evening ladies and gentlemen. It is an honour for me to be the keynote speaker at this event, which recognises economists for their forecasting abilities. Those of you here this evening will understand better than most the difficulties involved with forecasting: that it is not an exact science, and at times it is more akin to being an informed “best guess”. Forecasting is difficult. Inevitably we are dealing with an unknown and unknowable future. But whether we are policy makers or making long term investment decisions, we have to take a view of the future.