Our website has detected that you are using an outdated browser that will prevent you
from accessing
certain features. An upgrade is recommended to improve you browsing experience.
Special Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 24/01 Less harm more growth February 2024
Published Date:
2024-02-26
Author:
Christopher Loewald
Last Modified Date:
2024-02-26, 12:00 PM
Category:
Publications > Special Occasional Bulletin Of Economic Notes | What's New
Macroeconomic policy in South Africa has been neither austere nor orthodox. Public spending has risen in real, inflation-adjusted, terms, in nearly every year of the post-GFC era, averaging over 3% annually, and rose especially strongly over the past three years. Real interest rates have averaged around 1%, well below neutral levels. Despite this track record, calls for higher public spending and looser monetary policy abound. But with observed low fiscal multipliers, weak potential growth and a closed output gap, a stimulus package will generate more inflation and little growth. This deepens inequality as inflation erodes incomes of poorer households and makes it harder to create labour-intensive manufacturing. With debt levels and borrowing costs at historical highs, macroeconomic de-risking – reducing debt and setting a more efficient inflation target – would increase economic growth in the short and long term, and, critically, increase the impact of economic reforms in factor, energy and logistics markets on inclusive growth. Faster sustainable growth in turn increases revenue for the upgrading of public services.