March 2016 – Business cycles in South Africa from 2009 to 2013
J C Venter
Last Modified Date:
2020-10-01, 09:31 PM
Quarterly Bulletins > Articles and Notes
The South African Reserve Bank (the Bank) had previously identified reference turning points in the cyclical movement of the South African economy for the period 1946 to 2009. These historic upper (peaks) and lower (troughs) turning points in the business cycle were discussed in various articles and notes published in earlier issues of the Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin. In addition, the reference chronology of peaks and troughs in the South African business cycle is regularly published on page S-157 of the Quarterly Bulletin. The most recently identified trough in the business cycle occurred in August 2009. The purpose of this article is to identify a reference peak in the business cycle, following the trough in August 2009. The next section briefly describes the methodology applied by the Bank in identifying a reference turning point in the business cycle, including the business cycle definition employed by the Bank. This is followed by the statistical results obtained when applyingthe methodology in this study. A brief overview of macroeconomic events and developments between 2009 and 2013 is then presented, followed by a graphic comparison of movements in selected economic indicators during the three post-apartheid upward phases in the South African business cycle. The article concludes with the identification of the most recent upperreference turning-point date.