June 2011 - Article - Business cycles in South Africa during the period 2007 to 2009
J C Venter
Last Modified Date:
2020-10-01, 09:31 PM
Quarterly Bulletins > Articles and Notes
In previous studies of the business cycle in South Africa, as published in earlier issues of the Quarterly Bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank (the Bank), reference turning points in the cyclical movement of the economy were identified for the period 1946 to 2007. The most recently identified peak in the business cycle occurred in November 20072, ending a 99-month upswing, the longest upward phase of the South African business cycle on record. This article addresses the identification of a lower reference turning point in the business cycle, following the peak in November 2007. The methods employed by the Bank in determining a reference turning point in the business cycle are discussed, followed by the statistical results obtained once these methods were applied to time series data. A brief synopsis of macroeconomic events and developments between 2007 and 2009 is then presented. In conclusion, the date of the lower reference turning point in the business cycle is identified.