The South African Reserve Bank (the Bank) had previously established reference turning points in the South African business cycle for the period 1946 to 1999. These historic reference turning points were discussed in various articles and notes published in earlier editions of the South African Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin. The most recently identified trough (lower reference turning point) in the business cycle occurred in August 1999 (Venter and Pretorius, 2001).​