March 2004 - Note on the revision of composite leading and coincident business cycle indicators
J C Venter and W S Pretorius
Last Modified Date:
2020-10-01, 09:31 PM
Quarterly Bulletins > Articles and Notes
Composite business cycle indicators are constructed by integrating various individual economic time series into a single indicator time series that mirrors the movement of and the turning points in the business cycle. The time series included in the composite business cycle indicators represent only a small sample of the total number of available indicators portraying various aspects of economic activity. Three groups of business cycle indicators are distinguished, namely those that change direction ahead of the business cycle (leading indicators), those that move more or less in conjunction with the business cycle (coincident indicators) and those time series that lag behind the business cycle (lagging indicators).