The South African Reserve Bank has determined reference turning points in the South African business cycle for the period 1946 to 1996. These reference turning points are discussed in various articles published in earlier issues of the South African Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin. The most recently identified upper reference turning point in the business cycle occurred in November 1996.This article discusses the determination and identification of a lower reference turning point following the peak of November 1996. The methods used to determine the reference turning point are described in the next section, then the statistical results yielded by these methods are presented. A brief overview of economic events and developments between 1997 and 1999 follows. Finally, the date of the lower reference turning point is indicated.