March 1999 - Article - Business cycles in SA during 1993 - 1997
W.S. Pretorius, J.C. Venter and P.J. Weideman
Last Modified Date:
2020-10-01, 09:31 PM
Quarterly Bulletins > Articles and Notes
The South African Reserve Bank has identified the turning points of the business cycle in South Africa since 1946. These upper and lower turning points (or peaks and troughs) have generally been regarded as the reference turning points in the South African business cycle, i.e. in the cyclical movement of the economy. The reference turning points have also been discussed in different studies published in earlier issues of the South African Reserve Bank’sQuarterly Bulletin.This article describes the cyclical movement of the economy since the latest identified trough of May 1993. The first section of this article describes the methods employed in determining the reference turning point. The next section presents the statistical results. This is followed by a brief overview of economic events and developments since the trough of May 1993 in order to finally establish the peak of the business cycle that followed the trough of 1993.