China has overtaken the euro area as South Africa’s largest trading partner in manufactured goods, as reflected in the most recent update of the effective exchange rates of the rand. The September 2026 edition of the Quarterly Bulletin unpacks the data behind this shift and what it means for the measurement of the rand’s competitiveness.

^{8 October 2026}
 

The South African Reserve Bank periodically revises the country’s effective exchange rate (EER) indices to accurately reflect changing trade patterns and developments in the domestic economy.

The EERs measure the rand’s performance against a weighted basket of South Africa’s main trading partner currencies. Each trading partner is assigned a weight based on its competitiveness in trade with South Africa.

China has steadily climbed the rankings over the past two decades, moving from sixth place in 2003 to first in 2026. Its trade weight increased sharply from only 3.1% in 1999 to 28.6% in 2026.

Over the same period, the euro area’s trade weight fell to 26.01% from 35.7%, moving it to second place.

However, South Africa’s trade relationship with China is highly uneven. South Africa imports a lot more manufactured products from China than it exports. In the 2026 revision, China supplied 35.7% of South Africa’s manufactured imports but received only about 5.9% of South Africa’s manufactured exports.

China’s growing presence in export markets where South African producers also compete has further increased its overall weight in the EER indices.

These developments show how changes in global trade are reshaping the set of currencies against which the rand’s performance is measured.

Discover how South Africa’s other major trading partners compare in the September 2026 Quarterly Bulletin.