South Africa’s refining capacity has halved over the past decade, marking the end of near self-sufficiency in liquid fuels.

^{by Mathias Manguzvane, Palesa Mnguni, Mapule Mofokeng and Nkhetheni Nesengani}

Imported refined products now supply more than half of domestic fuel demand, raising exposure to global price shocks and shipping disruptions.

This dependence also increases South Africa’s vulnerability to rand volatility.

The refinery closures have cut petroleum-related manufacturing output by roughly 20% since 2019, displaced an estimated 5 400 direct and indirect jobs, and prompted firms to defer investment.

In contrast, global and regional peers are expanding capacity through new mega-refineries, leaving South Africa increasingly reliant on imports and underscoring the need for a coordinated policy response to rebuild resilience in the energy system.