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Likely near-term macroeconomic impact of the implementation of the two-pot retirement saving system
Published Date:
2024-08-01
Author:
Nkhetheni Nesengani, Riaan Ehlers, Mish Choonoo, Annelie Van Niekerk, Theo Janse van Rensburg
Last Modified Date:
2024-08-01, 09:48 PM
Category:
Publications > Special Occasional Bulletin Of Economic Notes | What's New
This economic note seeks to explore the possible macroeconomic impacts of the recently-introduced two-pot pension system. Using the core model, we find that a moderate two-pot system scenario will add 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points (pp) respectively to GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, whilst reducing the government debt to GDP ratio by 0.5 pp in 2024/25 and by 1.0 pp and by in 2025/26. Under a high withdrawal scenario, we find that GDP growth will increase by 0.3 and 0.7 pp respectively in 2024 and 2025. The Government debt to GDP ratio will improve by 1.1 pp in 2024/25 and by 2.3 in 2025/26. The negative side is that the higher the withdrawal rates the less funds will be available at retirement age. The above impacts are relatively small when compared with pension reforms elsewhere. For instance, in Chile, rule changes allowed much larger withdrawals and pension assets declined by 14% of GDP.