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The South African business cycle from 2013 to 2022
Published Date:
2023-03-31
Last Modified Date:
2023-03-31, 10:17 AM
Category:
Quarterly Bulletins > Articles and Notes | What's New
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has previously identified reference turning points in the South African business cycle for the period 1946 to 2013. These turning points have been discussed in various articles and notes published in earlier editions of the Quarterly Bulletin (QB). The chronology of upper (peaks) and lower (troughs) turning points is published in the statistical tables section of the QB.2 The most recently identified peak in the business cycle was November 2013 (Venter, 2016).
The purpose of this article is to identify and publish reference turning points in the South African business cycle after the November 2013 peak.
Over the past decade, the South African economy was impacted by several adverse global developments and domestic structural constraints which have led to a protracted period of heightened uncertainty and resulted in a gradual decline in the potential rate of economic growth (SARB, 2017). The domestic economy was also severely impacted on by the national lockdown restrictions imposed in 2020 after the global outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.