Revenue rebounded strongly in the 2021/22 fiscal year following a sharp decline in 2020/21. This recovery was supported by a strong rally in global commodity prices. We assess the performance of the primary tax revenue streams over the 2020/21 and 2021/22 fiscal period and model the impact of the raised commodity prices. We estimate that 30% of the increase in gross revenue during the 2-year period is attributable to the growth in commodity prices. Using our model estimates together with official SARB projections for GDP and commodity prices we projected a revenue surplus of R92 billion compared to National Treasury’s Budget Review 2022 estimate of R1,588 billion for 2022/23. The budget deficit falls to 4.3% compared to National Treasury’s estimate of 6.0%, however, significant expenditure risks remain.